One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like whether the Soviet Union would disintegrate by 1993.
Interestingly, the “experts” struggled to perform better than “dart-throwing chimps,” and were consistently less accurate than even relatively simple statistical algorithms. This was true of both liberals and conservatives, and regardless of professional credentials.
What Tetlock also uncovered was that people who preferred to consider multiple explanations and balance them together had superior results to those who relied on a single big idea.
So since our guess can be as good as any, Reddit user Tasty_likesugar decided to ask random minds on the internet to share the things they believe will almost certainly happen in the next three decades. Below are the replies they’ve received.
#1
A horrific pandemic that will make COVID look like “the good old days.” I’m talking *Captain Trips* levels of global mortality.
The United States will be particularly hard-hit, as nearly 50% of the population will refuse to mask, isolate, get vaccinated, or take any other science-based action to slow down the spread.
Whoever is reading this finding happiness.
#3
More extreme weather events.
#4
There will be more effective d***s to slow down the progression of Alzheimer’s. At least I hope so.
#5
Resource wars.
#6
Climate change will begin to have a significant impact on society, we’re already heading towards it and there’s really nothing we can do to stop it without a major shift in policy.
#7
I won’t understand the youth’s slang, and their music will suck.
#8
The retirement age will have gone up again.
#9
Flooding will displace millions worldwide.
#10
People in this thread being wrong.
#11
World War 3
I know I sound pessimistic but i truly expect it to happen.
We have too many issues that only will get worse and this will increase global frictions between countries:
Climate Change
Water/Food SHortage
Global Aging Population (a lot of Snowball Pension system collapsing)
AI (pushing all the profits into the 1% and leaving the middle class broke, the Law Makers will make sure UBI won’t happen).
#12
We *are* going to see some more bacteria beyond TB and a small number of others that are completely resistant to even last-line antibiotics, and *many* more that are resistant to first and second line treatments.
My group just published our first paper on *P. Aeruginosa,* it's the biggest genomic study of isolates from patients that we know; we sequenced just shy of 3,000 genomes taken all across the world.
**All** of them bar the isolates from ONE patient had a group of 6 genes conferring increased resistance to beta-lactams ([all of these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_%CE%B2-lactam_antibiotics)), fosfomycin, aminoglycosides (eg. Streptomycin) , chloramphenicol, and two different mutations in a d**g efflux pump. The one patient that didn't had the genetic region for the beta-lactam resistance deleted.
Antibiotic resistance already k*lls millions, and its going to k*ll millions more. Most of those are going to be the poor and people living in under-resourced countries.
#13
The rest of the movie Idiocracy.
#14
The remaining books for Game of Thrones will still not be released.
#15
A civil war in Russia, followed by fragmentation into perpetually-warring separatist states.
#16
The record breaking global temperatures of 2023 will be cold in comparison to future global temperatures.
#17
If we stay on this trajectory then there will be no middle class.
#18
Political tensions will increase over climate migration.
#19
The birth rate in developed countries will continue to decline at an alarming rate.
#20
The rich, getting richer.
#21
Some animals going extinct.
#22
We’ll all be using tech that seems like sci-fi now.
#23
People reminiscing that life was better 30 years ago.
#24
Space debris will be a problem.
#25
My guess is ill still be living off ramen and wishing i had more money for snacks… just a hunch.
#26
More riots in the US, most likely over pricing, or political b******t.
#27
Some coastal cities will invest in floating architecture.
#28
World hunger, food deficit.
#29
Mass migration from SE Asia during fatal wet bulb events.
#30
Governments will invest more in green infrastructure.
#31
Many developed countries will run into serious health and economic issues due to aging populations.
#32
Scientists will discover life or evidence of life on other planets.
#33
More people will live in vertical farms.
#34
No more polar ice caps.
#35
Let’s be a bit optimistic
Self-driving, electric cars/buses/trucks becoming ubiquitous
Augmented reality becoming a daily thing for most people, in the form of glasses mostly
Working on ultraportable virtual screens
Alexa-like device in every home coordinating various functions
Cancer becoming a disease we can live with and cure for the most part
True decline of fossil resources because of the availability of dirt-cheap solar power paired with convenient energy storage
Modular nuclear reactors
Wireless self-charging of consumer devices
Nuclear fusion?
Who knows what with AI, this one is truly an open question how far it can go.
#36
People will still be complaining about something.
#37
Another pandemic maybe, sounds scary but could happen sadly.
#38
Something maybe even scarier then the atomic bomb being made.
#39
More subscription services.
#40
The first man on Mars.
#41
Mental health will become a focus.
#42
Me getting married.
I have faith.
#43
We reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
#44
Technology getting even weirder than it already is.
#45
The humankind will invent its way out of the catastrophes we fear today. What will the way be and whether it’s better than our current situation or not, I don’t know. Also, there will be something else to worry about by then.
#46
8 of “the most important election of our lifetime”.
#47
Fusion power plants being 30 years away.
#48
Half-Life 3 won’t be released.
#49
People 70 and above today will die.
#50
Another sequel to Frozen.